7
Love Like Lucy
3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 81
Gulfstream · Race 8 - Allowance · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
4/5
Win Prob
5%
Place Prob
12%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength26%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.6 /10 (raw 2.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.7
Today:
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-03 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-04-25 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-03-20 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-01-10 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2025-11-29 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 886% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength74%
Delivery trend -1.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08/2025 | 1st | 8/15 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 06/09/2025 | 3rd | 15/8 | 90% | 60% | -0.30 |
| 18/10/2025 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 90% | +0.19 |
| 29/11/2025 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 40% | -0.28 |
| 10/01/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 40% | -0.31 |
| 20/03/2026 | 2nd | 11/10 | 94% | 80% | -0.14 |
| 25/04/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 25% | -0.46 |
| 23/05/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 75% | -0.09 |
| 03/07/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 83% | -0.02 |