3
Major Pryce
6yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 79
Gulfstream · Race 8 - Allowance · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
4%
Place Prob
10%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-18 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-06-20 | Gulfstream | ? | 6th | 9th | −3 |
| 2025-06-27 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2025-05-31 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 7th | −2 |
| 2025-04-27 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 843% of fieldRange 3-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength26%
Delivery trend +1.3% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/02/2025 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 26/03/2025 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 20% | -0.17 |
| 06/04/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 60% | -0.19 |
| 27/04/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 40% | +0.03 |
| 31/05/2025 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 43% | +0.17 |
| 27/06/2025 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 20/06/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 18/07/2026 | 3rd | 40/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |
| 22/08/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 43% | +0.17 |