1
Vita Mia
3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 78
Gulfstream · Race 8 - Allowance · 6f
#7
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼1
Strength63%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.9
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-07 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-01-01 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2025-11-29 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | 1st | +5 |
| 2025-10-25 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2025-09-26 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2025-09-06 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 829% of fieldRange 2-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength49%
Delivery trend -4.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07/2025 | 7th | 5/1 | 74% | 40% | -0.34 |
| 08/08/2025 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 80% | +0.12 |
| 06/09/2025 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 26/09/2025 | 2nd | 6/5 | 94% | 80% | -0.14 |
| 25/10/2025 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 88% | +0.19 |
| 29/11/2025 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 44% | +0.29 |
| 01/01/2026 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 20% | -0.62 |
| 07/02/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 33% | -0.46 |