5
Full Nelson
5yo Gelding · 8-13 · OR 91
Gulfstream · Race 9 - Claiming · 1m
#2
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
10%
Place Prob
16%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength15%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 7 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-25 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-27 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-05 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-02-05 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-12-11 | Gulfstream | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-11-28 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 2-5 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▲
Strength69%
Delivery trend +8.0% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/03/2025 | 11th | 7/1 | 63% | 9% | -0.54 |
| 04/10/2025 | 9th | 15/2 | 61% | 0% | -0.61 |
| 24/10/2025 | 8th | 6/1 | 68% | 13% | -0.56 |
| 28/11/2025 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 80% | -0.12 |
| 11/12/2025 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 14% | -0.57 |
| 05/02/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 75% | -0.04 |
| 05/04/2026 | 2nd | 11/10 | 94% | 86% | -0.09 |
| 27/06/2026 | 2nd | 6/5 | 94% | 80% | -0.14 |
| 25/07/2026 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |