Mister Abarrio
6yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 102
Gulfstream · Race 9 - Claiming · 1m
#3
Rank
Odds
9/5
Win Prob
6%
Place Prob
12%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 3.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 | Colonial Downs | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2026-06-27 | Colonial Downs | ? | 2nd | 0th | +2 |
| 2026-03-20 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-02-08 | Gulfstream | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-01-17 | Gulfstream | ? | 6th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2025-11-15 | Churchill Downs | ? | 8th | 7th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +0.8% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/07/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 28/08/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 04/10/2025 | 8th | 6/1 | 68% | 13% | -0.56 |
| 15/11/2025 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 36% | +0.21 |
| 17/01/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 08/02/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 20/03/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 20% | -0.59 |
| 27/06/2026 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 90% | +0.90 |
| 14/08/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 43% | -0.18 |