2

No More War

4yo Gelding · 8-13 · OR 92

Gulfstream · Race 9 - Claiming · 1m

#1

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

74%

Place Prob

43%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move
Strength40%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.0 /10 (raw 3.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.9
Today:
Class gap: +0.6
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Gulfstream 24/11/2024 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR - · 1m70y Fas 118 · HIGHER CLASS24/11C6C6 @ Gulfstream 21/12/2024 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 102 · 1m110y Fm 118 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark21/12/2024 · OR 102 parC6 @ Gulfstream 08/02/2025 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 100 · 1m Fm 118 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark08/02/2025 · OR 100 par8/02C6OR 100C6 @ Gulfstream 08/03/2025 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 100 · 1m Fm 118 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark08/03/2025 · OR 100 parC7 @ Gulfstream 13/02/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 95 · 1m Fm 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark13/02/2026 · OR 95 par13/02C7OR 95C9 @ Gulfstream 02/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 89 · 7f110y Fm 126 · beat its mark02/05/2026 · OR 89 parC8 @ Gulfstream 19/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 90 · 1m110y 126 · beat its mark19/06/2026 · OR 90 par19/06C8OR 90C7 @ Gulfstream 19/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 89 · 1m110y Fm 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark19/07/2026 · OR 89 parC7 @ Gulfstream 17/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 93 · 1m Fm 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark17/08/2026 · OR 93 par17/08C7OR 93projClass-projected finish: 1st of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-17Gulfstream?3rd2nd+1
2026-07-19Gulfstream?1st0th+1
2026-06-19Gulfstream?1st1st0
2026-05-02Gulfstream?1st2nd1
2026-02-13Gulfstream?3rd2nd+1
2025-03-08Gulfstream?7th5th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today24/118/0319/0617/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8100% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength86%

Delivery trend -0.2% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 8.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
24/11/20243rd9/153%75%+0.22
21/12/20242nd11/486%91%+0.05
08/02/20256th7/282%38%-0.44
08/03/20257th16/116%45%+0.30
13/02/20263rd5/287%75%-0.12
02/05/20261st9/488%100%+0.12
19/06/20261st7/491%100%+0.09
19/07/20261st10/382%100%+0.18
17/08/20263rd4/179%67%-0.12