Saratoga Flash
8yo Gelding · 8-13 · OR 91
Gulfstream · Race 9 - Claiming · 1m
#4
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
4%
Place Prob
10%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 7 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 4.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | Gulfstream | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-13 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-22 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-25 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2026-03-28 | Gulfstream | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2026-02-12 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +0.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/09/2025 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 64% | -0.10 |
| 11/10/2025 | 7th | 15/2 | 61% | 25% | -0.36 |
| 11/01/2026 | 3rd | 4/7 | 97% | 67% | -0.30 |
| 12/02/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 28/03/2026 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 44% | -0.35 |
| 25/04/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 50% | -0.16 |
| 22/05/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 60% | -0.27 |
| 13/07/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 24/08/2026 | 7th | 4/1 | 79% | 45% | -0.33 |