5
Instparty
7yo Mare · 8-7 · OR 85
Laurel Park · Race 1 - Starter Optional Claiming · 5f 110y
#8
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength14%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 7.4 /10 (raw 5.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-13 | Colonial Downs | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-07-19 | Colonial Downs | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-06-13 | Laurel Park | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-05-08 | Laurel Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-11-15 | Laurel Park | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-10-25 | Laurel Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 913% of fieldRange 4-9 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength34%
Delivery trend +0.7% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08/2025 | 10th | 20/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 05/09/2025 | 4th | 40/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 27/09/2025 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 25/10/2025 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 15/11/2025 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 08/05/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 13/06/2026 | 11th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 19/07/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 13/08/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |