9
Never So Lucky
6yo Mare · 8-11 · OR 52
Laurel Park · Race 1 - Starter Optional Claiming · 5f 110y
#9
Rank
Odds
30/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.5 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | Delaware Park | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-09-01 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-19 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-08-05 | Mountaineer | ? | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-04-09 | Charles Town | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-02-20 | Charles Town | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 90% of fieldRange 5-9 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength24%
Delivery trend +0.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/11/2025 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 19/12/2025 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 06/02/2026 | 7th | 50/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 20/02/2026 | 7th | 50/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 09/04/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 05/08/2026 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 19/08/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 01/09/2026 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |
| 16/09/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 38% | +0.22 |