Sugar Bee

5yo Mare · 8-7 · OR 93

Laurel Park · Race 1 - Starter Optional Claiming · 5f 110y

Rank

Odds

2/1

Win Prob

74%

Place Prob

53%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▬

Strength34%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 5.1)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.2

Today:

Class gap: +0.3

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-07-04	Delaware Park	?	8th	6th	+2	3.8
2026-06-10	Delaware Park	?	3rd	3rd	0	7.0
2026-05-08	Laurel Park	?	6th	7th	−1	2.8
2025-10-10	Laurel Park	?	2nd	2nd	0	8.0
2025-09-27	Laurel Park	?	5th	4th	+1	6.2
2025-08-30	Colonial Downs	?	5th	5th	0	5.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish2nd of 988% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%

▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price

Trend▼

Strength67%

Delivery trend -3.7% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 9. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
07/06/2025	3rd	12/1	37%	80%	+0.43
29/06/2025	6th	10/1	47%	17%	-0.31
31/07/2025	5th	8/1	58%	33%	-0.25
30/08/2025	5th	16/1	16%	43%	+0.27
27/09/2025	5th	10/1	47%	56%	+0.08
10/10/2025	2nd	10/3	82%	83%	+0.01
08/05/2026	6th	9/4	88%	17%	-0.71
10/06/2026	3rd	16/1	16%	71%	+0.56
04/07/2026	8th	10/1	47%	0%	-0.47