9
Louvar
4yo Filly · 9-0
Laurel Park · Race 10 - Maiden Special Weight · 5f 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
75%
Place Prob
43%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲2
Strength4%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 5.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.1
Today:
Class gap: -2.1
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Colonial Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-23 | Colonial Downs | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-08-02 | Colonial Downs | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
| 2026-07-10 | Colonial Downs | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-06-13 | Laurel Park | ? | 4th | 7th | −3 |
| 2025-12-12 | Turfway Park | ? | 6th | 9th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 988% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength94%
Delivery trend +1.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/09/2025 | 10th | 40/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 28/09/2025 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 70% | +0.44 |
| 10/10/2025 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 67% | +0.04 |
| 12/12/2025 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 13/06/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 63% | +0.15 |
| 10/07/2026 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 91% | +0.91 |
| 02/08/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 67% | -0.18 |
| 23/08/2026 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 86% | +0.70 |
| 05/09/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 71% | +0.14 |