4
Lux
4yo Filly · 9-0
Laurel Park · Race 10 - Maiden Special Weight · 5f 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
4%
Place Prob
10%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.6
Today:
Class gap: -0.6
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | Colonial Downs | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-12 | Monmouth Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-19 | Laurel Park | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-05-14 | Laurel Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 950% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength23%
Delivery trend -13.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/05/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 14% | -0.23 |
| 19/06/2026 | 2nd | 50/1 | 0% | 83% | +0.83 |
| 12/07/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 83% | +0.15 |
| 21/08/2026 | 7th | 6/1 | 68% | 25% | -0.43 |