IvyArcIvyArc
5

Chimney Sweep

4yo Gelding · 9-0

Laurel Park · Race 3 - Maiden Claiming · 5f 110y

#2

Rank

Odds

5/2

Win Prob

2%

Place Prob

11%

Rank

#2

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength55%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 4.1)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.7
Today:
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Colonial Downs 25/07/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 62 · 5f110y Fm 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/07/2025 · OR 62 par25/07C6OR 62C6 @ Colonial Downs 28/08/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 71 · 5f110y Fm 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark28/08/2025 · OR 71 parC9 @ Laurel Park 05/09/2025 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR - · 5f110y Fm 1225/09C9C9 @ Laurel Park 28/09/2025 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR - · 5f110y Gd 122C9 @ Laurel Park 24/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR - · 6f Fm 12324/10C9C9 @ Laurel Park 15/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR - · 5f110y Fm 126C9 @ Laurel Park 14/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR - · 5f110y Fm 12614/06C9C6 @ Colonial Downs 11/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 74 · 5f110y Fm 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/07/2026 · OR 74 parC6 @ Colonial Downs 02/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 75 · 6f Yie 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark02/08/2026 · OR 75 par2/08C6OR 75projClass-projected finish: 1st of 5
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-02Colonial Downs?3rd0th+3
2026-07-11Colonial Downs?2nd-1th+3
2026-06-14Laurel Park?6th6th0
2026-05-15Laurel Park?3rd3rd0
2025-10-24Laurel Park?3rd3rd0
2025-09-28Laurel Park?5th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today25/0728/0914/062/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 988% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength92%

Delivery trend -0.5% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 9.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
25/07/20252nd12/137%83%+0.46
28/08/20252nd5/174%83%+0.10
05/09/20255th2/189%33%-0.56
28/09/20255th6/168%56%-0.13
24/10/20253rd16/116%78%+0.62
15/05/20263rd9/153%85%+0.32
14/06/20266th9/488%55%-0.34
11/07/20262nd5/174%86%+0.12
02/08/20263rd15/261%75%+0.14