Forget The Rules
3yo Gelding · 8-6
Laurel Park · Race 3 - Maiden Claiming · 5f 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 5.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | Colonial Downs | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2026-07-11 | Colonial Downs | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-06-28 | Laurel Park | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2026-06-14 | Laurel Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-09-14 | Laurel Park | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +0.3% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/09/2025 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 14% | -0.12 |
| 14/06/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |
| 28/06/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 11/07/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 21/08/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |