Serendipitymonday
4yo Gelding · 9-0
Laurel Park · Race 3 - Maiden Claiming · 5f 110y
#7
Rank
Odds
30/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 5.1)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-28 | Laurel Park | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-09-04 | Colonial Downs | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
| 2025-07-25 | Colonial Downs | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2025-06-20 | Laurel Park | ? | 2nd | -1th | +3 |
| 2025-02-23 | Laurel Park | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
| 2025-01-25 | Laurel Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -6.9% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 8th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/12/2024 | 6th | 50/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 25/01/2025 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 23/02/2025 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 67% | +0.19 |
| 20/06/2025 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 80% | -0.06 |
| 25/07/2025 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 50% | -0.37 |
| 04/09/2025 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 28/09/2025 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |