5
Holy Fit
4yo Filly · 9-0 · OR 65
Laurel Park · Race 4 - Claiming · 1m
#6
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | Delaware Park | ? | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-07-24 | Penn National | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-25 | Penn National | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-05-10 | Laurel Park | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-04-25 | Laurel Park | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2025-07-10 | Delaware Park | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 829% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength47%
Delivery trend -0.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/05/2025 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 89% | +0.31 |
| 01/06/2025 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 80% | -0.08 |
| 26/06/2025 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 67% | -0.20 |
| 10/07/2025 | 4th | 11/8 | 93% | 50% | -0.43 |
| 25/04/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 64% | -0.13 |
| 10/05/2026 | 3rd | 7/4 | 91% | 71% | -0.19 |
| 25/06/2026 | 4th | 1/1 | 95% | 25% | -0.70 |
| 24/07/2026 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 20/08/2026 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 22% | +0.06 |