6
The Great Maybe
6yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 74
Laurel Park · Race 4 - Claiming · 1m
#7
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength18%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 | Delaware Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Laurel Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-19 | Laurel Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-19 | Fair Grounds | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-02-22 | Fair Grounds | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-12-20 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 80% of fieldRange 3-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength40%
Delivery trend -5.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/03/2024 | 7th | 13/2 | 66% | 40% | -0.26 |
| 02/02/2025 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |
| 22/03/2025 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 90% | +0.27 |
| 20/12/2025 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 22/02/2026 | 2nd | 11/8 | 93% | 83% | -0.09 |
| 19/03/2026 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 50% | -0.37 |
| 19/04/2026 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 86% | -0.06 |
| 30/05/2026 | 4th | 8/13 | 97% | 50% | -0.47 |
| 01/08/2026 | 3rd | 11/10 | 94% | 71% | -0.23 |