3
Zen Dreams
4yo Filly · 9-0 · OR 62
Laurel Park · Race 4 - Claiming · 1m
#1
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
100%
Place Prob
88%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength13%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.9
Today:
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-23 | Colonial Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-21 | Laurel Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-07 | Laurel Park | ? | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2026-05-10 | Laurel Park | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-04-25 | Laurel Park | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-04-12 | Laurel Park | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8100% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength91%
Delivery trend +2.8% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/10/2025 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 70% | +0.70 |
| 28/12/2025 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 80% | +0.09 |
| 01/03/2026 | 3rd | 4/9 | 98% | 60% | -0.38 |
| 12/04/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 25/04/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 44% | -0.08 |
| 10/05/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 43% | +0.17 |
| 07/06/2026 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 22% | +0.06 |
| 21/06/2026 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 23/07/2026 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 89% | +0.89 |