Citrine
3yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 85
Laurel Park · Race 5 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m
#4
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Colonial Downs | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-08-14 | Delaware Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-01 | Delaware Park | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-05-28 | Delaware Park | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +12.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/05/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |
| 01/07/2026 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 17% | -0.54 |
| 14/08/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 43% | -0.36 |
| 28/08/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |