Greyline Station
3yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 86
Laurel Park · Race 5 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m
#2
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
7%
Place Prob
15%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 3.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 | Colonial Downs | ? | 11th | 9th | +2 |
| 2026-07-06 | Colonial Downs | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2026-06-06 | Laurel Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-10 | Laurel Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-15 | Laurel Park | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-02-22 | Laurel Park | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -0.8% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/11/2025 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 13/12/2025 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 80% | -0.04 |
| 10/01/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 78% | +0.07 |
| 22/02/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 71% | -0.13 |
| 15/03/2026 | 1st | 8/13 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 10/05/2026 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 80% | -0.10 |
| 06/06/2026 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 75% | -0.16 |
| 06/07/2026 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 01/08/2026 | 11th | 50/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |