Leave Me
3yo Gelding · 8-6 · OR 86
Laurel Park · Race 5 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m
#3
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
10%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 4.1)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | Saratoga | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-25 | Saratoga | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-06-13 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-05-16 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2025-12-31 | Aqueduct | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2025-11-20 | Aqueduct | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -4.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11/2025 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 91% | +0.54 |
| 20/11/2025 | 6th | 10/3 | 82% | 38% | -0.45 |
| 31/12/2025 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 17% | +0.01 |
| 16/05/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 70% | -0.09 |
| 13/06/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 63% | -0.06 |
| 25/07/2026 | 1st | 8/11 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 27/08/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 38% | -0.15 |