Vaya Jeffe

4yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 80

Laurel Park · Race 5 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

89%

Place Prob

57%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▬

Strength29%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 4.2)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C7.0

Today:

Class gap: -0.5

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-08-27	Colonial Downs	?	2nd	3rd	−1	6.8
2026-08-08	Charles Town	?	6th	4th	+2	5.8
2026-06-27	Laurel Park	?	3rd	3rd	0	7.0
2026-05-10	Laurel Park	?	1st	3rd	−2	6.6
2026-03-12	Colonial Downs	?	4th	3rd	+1	6.6
2025-12-18	Turfway Park	?	3rd	5th	−2	4.6

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish4th of 1067% of fieldRange 4-10 · 68%

▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price

Trend▼

Strength33%

Delivery trend -7.6% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 10. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
17/01/2025	6th	33/1	0%	38%	+0.38
16/02/2025	7th	20/1	0%	40%	+0.40
17/04/2025	6th	14/1	26%	44%	+0.18
18/12/2025	3rd	13/2	66%	75%	+0.09
12/03/2026	4th	4/1	79%	40%	-0.39
10/05/2026	1st	11/4	86%	100%	+0.14
27/06/2026	3rd	11/2	71%	78%	+0.07
08/08/2026	6th	11/4	86%	17%	-0.69
27/08/2026	2nd	13/2	66%	75%	+0.09