15
Adios Marilyn
4yo Filly · 9-0
Laurel Park · Race 6 - Maiden Claiming · 5f 110y
#8
Rank
Odds
30/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▼2
Strength15%
What the class read says
Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: +1.8
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | Penn National | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-23 | Colonial Downs | ? | 3rd | -1th | +4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1667% of fieldRange 13-13 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength22%
Delivery trend -10.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 16. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/07/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 60% | +0.44 |
| 20/08/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |