8
Poney Island
3yo Filly · 8-10
Laurel Park · Race 6 - Maiden Claiming · 5f 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
41%
Place Prob
31%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength17%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | Penn National | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-26 | Charles Town | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Delaware Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-12 | Laurel Park | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-01 | Laurel Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-12 | Charles Town | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1680% of fieldRange 11-16 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -6.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 16. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/11/2025 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |
| 20/12/2025 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 20% | -0.27 |
| 14/02/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 43% | +0.27 |
| 12/03/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 83% | +0.18 |
| 01/05/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 83% | +0.01 |
| 12/06/2026 | 8th | 5/1 | 74% | 36% | -0.37 |
| 04/07/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 64% | -0.13 |
| 26/07/2026 | 4th | 2/1 | 89% | 40% | -0.49 |
| 20/08/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 67% | +0.19 |