3
Beach Cowboy
5yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 84
Laurel Park · Race 7 - Claiming · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
85%
Place Prob
58%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-10 | Laurel Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-19 | Laurel Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-02-20 | Laurel Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-02-05 | Laurel Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-01-16 | Laurel Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-12-26 | Laurel Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 3-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength39%
Delivery trend -5.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/05/2025 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 04/07/2025 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 12/09/2025 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 26/12/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 70% | +0.33 |
| 16/01/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 67% | +0.30 |
| 05/02/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 71% | -0.05 |
| 20/02/2026 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 80% | -0.11 |
| 19/04/2026 | 2nd | 11/10 | 94% | 89% | -0.05 |
| 10/05/2026 | 5th | 6/5 | 94% | 20% | -0.74 |