4
Candycrumbs
4yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 78
Laurel Park · Race 7 - Claiming · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
8%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-06 | Laurel Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-02-15 | Laurel Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-01-23 | Laurel Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-12-27 | Laurel Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-11-14 | Laurel Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-10-12 | Laurel Park | ? | 10th | 9th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 829% of fieldRange 6-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength0%
Delivery trend -1.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08/2025 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 29% | -0.29 |
| 30/08/2025 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 50% | -0.34 |
| 28/09/2025 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 12/10/2025 | 10th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 14/11/2025 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 38% | -0.34 |
| 27/12/2025 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 17% | -0.44 |
| 23/01/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 43% | -0.36 |
| 15/02/2026 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 06/03/2026 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |