Prado Road
5yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 87
Laurel Park · Race 7 - Claiming · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
11%
Place Prob
21%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 3.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Charles Town | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2026-07-30 | Penn National | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-14 | Laurel Park | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2026-05-03 | Laurel Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-11 | Laurel Park | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2026-03-15 | Laurel Park | ? | 1st | -2th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +1.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/04/2025 | 2nd | 4/7 | 97% | 80% | -0.17 |
| 16/01/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 57% | -0.14 |
| 20/02/2026 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 75% | -0.17 |
| 15/03/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 11/04/2026 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 38% | -0.41 |
| 03/05/2026 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 33% | -0.49 |
| 14/06/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 30/07/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 28/08/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |