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5yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 76

Laurel Park · Race 7 - Claiming · 6f

#6

Rank

Odds

30/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#6

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 4.7)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Laurel Park 25/01/2025 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 79 · 6f Fas 126 · below its mark25/01/2025 · OR 79 par25/01C8OR 79C8 @ Laurel Park 14/02/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 81 · 5f110y Gd 123 · beat its mark14/02/2025 · OR 81 parC8 @ Laurel Park 23/02/2025 · Pos 11th of 11 · OR 78 · 6f Fas 126 · below its mark23/02/2025 · OR 78 par23/02C8OR 78C7 @ Laurel Park 26/04/2025 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR 87 · 5f110y Gd 119 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark26/04/2025 · OR 87 parC8 @ Laurel Park 29/03/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 77 · 7f 123 · below its mark29/03/2026 · OR 77 par29/03C8OR 77C8 @ Laurel Park 19/04/2026 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 72 · 6f Fas 123 · below its mark19/04/2026 · OR 72 parC8 @ Laurel Park 10/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 68 · 5f110y Fas 123 · below its mark10/05/2026 · OR 68 par10/05C8OR 68C8 @ Laurel Park 31/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 71 · 6f 123 · below its mark31/05/2026 · OR 71 parC8 @ Laurel Park 26/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 77 · 5f110y Fas 123 · below its mark26/06/2026 · OR 77 par26/06C8OR 77projClass-projected finish: 5th of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-26Laurel Park?6th6th0
2026-05-31Laurel Park?3rd3rd0
2026-05-10Laurel Park?3rd3rd0
2026-04-19Laurel Park?9th9th0
2026-03-29Laurel Park?7th7th0
2025-04-26Laurel Park?8th7th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today25/0126/0410/0526/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 843% of fieldRange 3-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength40%

Delivery trend +5.0% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 8. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
25/01/20255th11/271%60%-0.11
14/02/20251st6/168%100%+0.32
23/02/202511th12/137%0%-0.37
26/04/20258th25/10%36%+0.36
29/03/20267th14/126%14%-0.12
19/04/20269th40/10%11%+0.11
10/05/20263rd25/10%60%+0.60
31/05/20263rd15/121%67%+0.46
26/06/20266th14/126%38%+0.11