1
Big Bolton
3yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 87
Laurel Park · Race 8 - Allowance · 5f 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
4%
Place Prob
10%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-09 | Laurel Park | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2025-11-08 | Laurel Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 829% of fieldRange 8-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -71.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11/2025 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 09/01/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 33% | -0.25 |