5
Matthew's Ticket
3yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 93
Laurel Park · Race 8 - Allowance · 5f 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
13%
Place Prob
17%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 3.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.7
Today:
Class gap: -1.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Colonial Downs | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-08-20 | Colonial Downs | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-08-02 | Monmouth Park | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-06-28 | Laurel Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-04-17 | Laurel Park | ? | 4th | 8th | −4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Laurel Park | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength72%
Delivery trend +1.0% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 3rd of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/12/2025 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 67% | +0.06 |
| 16/01/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 60% | -0.16 |
| 27/02/2026 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 17% | -0.41 |
| 17/04/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 57% | -0.11 |
| 28/06/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 02/08/2026 | 3rd | 6/4 | 92% | 71% | -0.21 |
| 20/08/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 86% | +0.03 |
| 05/09/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 71% | -0.10 |