2
Paul's Guitar
3yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 67
Laurel Park · Race 8 - Allowance · 5f 110y
#8
Rank
Odds
30/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲3
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 9.8 /10 (raw 5.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: -2.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Laurel Park | ? | 7th | 10th | −3 |
| 2026-08-31 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 6th | 9th | −3 |
| 2026-08-14 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 8th | −3 |
| 2026-06-21 | Laurel Park | ? | 7th | 10th | −3 |
| 2026-06-07 | Laurel Park | ? | 10th | 13th | −3 |
| 2026-03-21 | Laurel Park | ? | 6th | 9th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 80% of fieldRange 7-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -3.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/12/2025 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 06/02/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 08/03/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 21/03/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 07/06/2026 | 10th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 21/06/2026 | 7th | 7/1 | 63% | 14% | -0.49 |
| 14/08/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 20% | -0.46 |
| 31/08/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 12/09/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 25% | +0.09 |