Virginia Fitz
4yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 88
Laurel Park · Race 8 - Allowance · 5f 110y
#7
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 4.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Colonial Downs | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-15 | Colonial Downs | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-06-27 | Colonial Downs | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-06-13 | Laurel Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-26 | Laurel Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-10-18 | Laurel Park | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -1.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08/2025 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |
| 30/08/2025 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 38% | +0.22 |
| 21/09/2025 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 33% | -0.52 |
| 18/10/2025 | 8th | 8/1 | 58% | 22% | -0.36 |
| 26/04/2026 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 29% | -0.35 |
| 13/06/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 71% | +0.45 |
| 27/06/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 83% | +0.12 |
| 15/08/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 20% | -0.33 |
| 05/09/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |