2
Fayes Heart
3yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 79
Laurel Park · Race 9 - Allowance · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
83%
Place Prob
66%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲3
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 6.6 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.8
Today:
Class gap: -2.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-13 | Colonial Downs | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2026-06-21 | Laurel Park | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2026-06-05 | Laurel Park | ? | 4th | 7th | −3 |
| 2026-04-17 | Laurel Park | ? | 7th | 10th | −3 |
| 2026-04-03 | Laurel Park | ? | 1st | 5th | −4 |
| 2026-03-14 | Colonial Downs | ? | 5th | 9th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▲
Strength70%
Delivery trend +7.7% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/02/2026 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 0% | -0.61 |
| 22/02/2026 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 14/03/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 20% | -0.17 |
| 03/04/2026 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 17/04/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 14% | -0.33 |
| 05/06/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 40% | +0.03 |
| 21/06/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 13/07/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |