2
Alan's Conquest
5yo Gelding · 8-13 · OR 79
Los Alamitos Racecourse · Race 4 - Claiming · 5f
#4
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
8%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-21 | Los Alamitos Racecourse | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2025-09-20 | Los Alamitos Racecourse | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-08-10 | Del Mar | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-07-07 | Los Alamitos Racecourse | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-05-17 | Santa Anita | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 717% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength74%
Delivery trend +8.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/05/2025 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 07/07/2025 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 88% | +0.88 |
| 10/08/2025 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 55% | +0.55 |
| 20/09/2025 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 21/06/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |