5
Golf Drama
6yo Gelding · 8-13 · OR 83
Los Alamitos Racecourse · Race 4 - Claiming · 5f
#5
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
8%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength16%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-10 | Santa Anita | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-04-20 | Santa Anita | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2024-11-25 | Golden State Racing | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2024-10-04 | Fresno | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2024-06-15 | Pleasanton | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2024-04-06 | Golden Gate Fields | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +8.3% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/01/2024 | 9th | 8/1 | 58% | 0% | -0.58 |
| 11/02/2024 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 89% | +0.36 |
| 09/03/2024 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 44% | -0.37 |
| 06/04/2024 | 3rd | 6/4 | 92% | 60% | -0.32 |
| 15/06/2024 | 3rd | 4/6 | 96% | 50% | -0.46 |
| 04/10/2024 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 25/11/2024 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 20/04/2025 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 10/05/2025 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 56% | -0.13 |