Lead Pipe Joe
4yo Gelding · 8-13 · OR 78
Los Alamitos Racecourse · Race 4 - Claiming · 5f
#2
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
13%
Place Prob
22%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 4.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Los Alamitos Racecourse | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-15 | Del Mar | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-05-10 | Santa Anita | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2025-03-08 | Santa Anita | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-02-23 | Santa Anita | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2025-01-25 | Santa Anita | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -0.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/01/2025 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 17% | -0.20 |
| 23/02/2025 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 25% | -0.12 |
| 08/03/2025 | 1st | 8/11 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 10/05/2025 | 1st | 1/2 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 15/08/2026 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |
| 11/09/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 43% | +0.17 |