Original One
3yo Colt · 8-8 · OR 85
Los Alamitos Racecourse · Race 4 - Claiming · 5f
#1
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
81%
Place Prob
53%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 4.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 | Del Mar | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-23 | Del Mar | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-29 | Santa Anita | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-03 | Santa Anita | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2026-04-19 | Santa Anita | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2026-01-18 | Santa Anita | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -4.9% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/01/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 19/04/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 03/05/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 29/05/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 50% | -0.13 |
| 23/07/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |
| 14/08/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 33% | -0.14 |