7
R Danny Boy
4yo Gelding · 8-13 · OR 67
Los Alamitos Racecourse · Race 4 - Claiming · 5f
#7
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08 | Del Mar | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-08 | Santa Anita | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-05-03 | Santa Anita | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-03-29 | Santa Anita | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-03-22 | Santa Anita | ? | 10th | 11th | −1 |
| 2026-02-15 | Santa Anita | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 70% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength77%
Delivery trend -6.6% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/02/2026 | 4th | 40/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 22/03/2026 | 10th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 29/03/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 83% | +0.57 |
| 03/05/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 91% | +0.17 |
| 08/06/2026 | 5th | 7/4 | 91% | 67% | -0.24 |
| 08/08/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |