De Facto
3yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 78
Los Alamitos Racecourse · Race 5 - Maiden Claiming · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
7%
Place Prob
12%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 4.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Del Mar | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-26 | Del Mar | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-06-12 | Santa Anita | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2026-05-10 | Santa Anita | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -5.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/05/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 50% | -0.34 |
| 12/06/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 63% | +0.15 |
| 26/07/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 20% | -0.59 |
| 29/08/2026 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |