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4

Here On Business

3yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 81

Los Alamitos Racecourse · Race 5 - Maiden Claiming · 6f

#5

Rank

Odds

2/1

Win Prob

7%

Place Prob

12%

Rank

#5

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▼3
Strength78%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 5.5)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: +2.5
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Santa Anita 22/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR - · 6f Fas 121 · HIGHER CLASS22/05C6C6 @ Del Mar 20/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 83 · 5f110y Fas 120 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark20/07/2026 · OR 83 par20/07C6OR 83projClass-projected finish: 1st of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-20Del Mar?6th3rd+3
2026-05-22Santa Anita?5th2nd+3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today22/0520/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 3-3 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength71%

Delivery trend +24.1% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
22/05/20265th5/287%20%-0.67
20/07/20266th11/893%50%-0.43