Sun Chaser
3yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 75
Los Alamitos Racecourse · Race 5 - Maiden Claiming · 6f
#6
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 6.4)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-25 | Del Mar | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-01 | Santa Anita | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-21 | Turfway Park | ? | 10th | 7th | +3 |
| 2026-01-04 | Turfway Park | ? | 11th | 8th | +3 |
| 2025-11-29 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | -1th | +3 |
| 2025-10-12 | Keeneland | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -13.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/09/2025 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 73% | +0.73 |
| 12/10/2025 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 45% | +0.09 |
| 29/11/2025 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 90% | +0.43 |
| 04/01/2026 | 11th | 16/1 | 16% | 9% | -0.07 |
| 21/03/2026 | 10th | 8/1 | 58% | 10% | -0.48 |
| 01/05/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 67% | +0.19 |
| 25/07/2026 | 7th | 5/1 | 74% | 45% | -0.28 |