6
Countess Vronsky
5yo Mare · 8-13 · OR 46
Los Alamitos Racecourse · Race 6 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength11%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 5.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-20 | Los Alamitos Racecourse | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-12-12 | Los Alamitos Racecourse | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-10-18 | Santa Anita | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-07-28 | Del Mar | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2025-06-22 | Los Alamitos Racecourse | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-05-11 | Santa Anita | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 843% of fieldRange 3-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength39%
Delivery trend -0.2% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/04/2025 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 11/05/2025 | 4th | 80/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 22/06/2025 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 28/07/2025 | 10th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 18/10/2025 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 12/12/2025 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 20/06/2026 | 4th | 100/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |