Definitely Prbable
3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 78
Los Alamitos Racecourse · Race 6 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 4.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-22 | Santa Anita | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-04-01 | Turf Paradise | ? | 1st | -1th | +2 |
| 2026-02-22 | Santa Anita | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-01-23 | Santa Anita | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2025-11-22 | Del Mar | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2025-11-03 | Del Mar | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -4.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08/2025 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 20/09/2025 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 03/11/2025 | 7th | 6/1 | 68% | 0% | -0.68 |
| 22/11/2025 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 67% | -0.18 |
| 23/01/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 22/02/2026 | 3rd | 6/5 | 94% | 60% | -0.34 |
| 01/04/2026 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 22/05/2026 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 13% | -0.24 |