4
Baytown Butterfly
4yo Filly · 8-13 · OR 79
Los Alamitos Racecourse · Race 7 - Starter Allowance · 5f 110y
#7
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength37%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 6 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Del Mar | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-07-30 | Del Mar | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-06-19 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-05-21 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-17 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-03-22 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 829% of fieldRange 4-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength14%
Delivery trend -8.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/10/2025 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 13/11/2025 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 28/12/2025 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 22/03/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 33% | -0.35 |
| 17/04/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 57% | +0.31 |
| 21/05/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 20% | -0.33 |
| 19/06/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 30/07/2026 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 29% | -0.42 |
| 23/08/2026 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 86% | -0.05 |