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5yo Mare · 8-13 · OR 72
Los Alamitos Racecourse · Race 7 - Starter Allowance · 5f 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 3.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-02 | Del Mar | ? | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2025-07-27 | Del Mar | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2024-12-15 | Los Alamitos Racecourse | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2024-11-24 | Del Mar | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2024-09-05 | Del Mar | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2024-02-11 | Santa Anita | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -7.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/12/2023 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 14/01/2024 | 1st | 4/7 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 11/02/2024 | 4th | 40/1 | 0% | 70% | +0.70 |
| 05/09/2024 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 63% | -0.22 |
| 24/11/2024 | 1st | 8/15 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 15/12/2024 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 0% | -0.66 |
| 27/07/2025 | 4th | 2/1 | 89% | 50% | -0.39 |
| 02/08/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |