3
Lovely Medaglia
4yo Filly · 8-13 · OR 85
Los Alamitos Racecourse · Race 7 - Starter Allowance · 5f 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.7
Today:
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-16 | Del Mar | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-07-27 | Del Mar | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-06-13 | Santa Anita | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-05-30 | Santa Anita | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-04-18 | Santa Anita | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 80% of fieldRange 6-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -14.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/04/2026 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |
| 30/05/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 13/06/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 27/07/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 71% | +0.45 |
| 16/08/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 43% | -0.15 |