Ryan's Girl
4yo Filly · 8-13 · OR 93
Los Alamitos Racecourse · Race 7 - Starter Allowance · 5f 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
91%
Place Prob
71%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.1 /10 (raw 4.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-27 | Del Mar | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-07-05 | Los Alamitos Racecourse | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-28 | Los Alamitos Racecourse | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-06-05 | Santa Anita | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-10 | Santa Anita | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-04-18 | Santa Anita | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -0.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/02/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 80% | +0.12 |
| 13/03/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |
| 29/03/2026 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 33% | -0.19 |
| 18/04/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 10/05/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 05/06/2026 | 1st | 4/7 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 28/06/2026 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 0% | -0.71 |
| 05/07/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 27/07/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 44% | +0.18 |