2

Rerally

7yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 88

Meadowlands · Race 1 - Claiming · 1m 110y

#5

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

3%

Rank

#5

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move1
Strength42%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.8 /10 (raw 2.6)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.7
Today:
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Monmouth Park 23/07/2023 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 78 · 1m110y Fas 124 · below its mark23/07/2023 · OR 78 par23/07C8OR 78C8 @ Monmouth Park 06/08/2023 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 75 · 6f Fas 124 · below its mark06/08/2023 · OR 75 parC8 @ Monmouth Park 02/09/2023 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 79 · 1m70y Fas 124 · below its mark02/09/2023 · OR 79 par2/09C8OR 79C7 @ Monmouth Park 25/05/2024 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 97 · 1m110y Fas 121 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark25/05/2024 · OR 97 parC7 @ Monmouth Park 15/06/2024 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 100 · 1m70y Fas 121 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark15/06/2024 · OR 100 par15/06C7OR 100C8 @ Monmouth Park 01/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 78 · 1m Fas 123 · below its mark01/08/2026 · OR 78 parC8 @ Monmouth Park 14/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 78 · 1m70y Fas 125 · beat its mark14/08/2026 · OR 78 par14/08C8OR 78C7 @ Monmouth Park 06/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 80 · 1m Fas 125 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark06/09/2026 · OR 80 parC6 @ Monmouth Park 13/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 88 · 1m110y Slo 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark13/09/2026 · OR 88 par13/09C6OR 88projClass-projected finish: 1st of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-13Monmouth Park?4th2nd+2
2026-09-06Monmouth Park?2nd1st+1
2026-08-14Monmouth Park?1st1st0
2026-08-01Monmouth Park?2nd2nd0
2024-06-15Monmouth Park?6th5th+1
2024-05-25Monmouth Park?2nd1st+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today23/0725/0514/0813/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 620% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend
Strength67%

Delivery trend +2.8% per run

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
23/07/20234th9/488%50%-0.38
06/08/20233rd15/890%60%-0.30
02/09/20233rd5/174%75%+0.01
25/05/20242nd5/174%75%+0.01
15/06/20246th4/179%29%-0.50
01/08/20262nd4/179%75%-0.04
14/08/20261st4/797%100%+0.03
06/09/20262nd4/179%75%-0.04
13/09/20264th13/266%50%-0.16