1
Garden Gal
4yo Filly · 8-13 · OR 71
Meadowlands · Race 3 - Maiden Special Weight · 5f
#4
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
10%
Place Prob
14%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength15%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Monmouth Park | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
| 2026-08-23 | Monmouth Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-11 | Monmouth Park | ? | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-06-26 | Monmouth Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | Monmouth Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Monmouth Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength75%
Delivery trend -0.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/08/2025 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 24/08/2025 | 11th | 13/2 | 66% | 9% | -0.57 |
| 13/09/2025 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 86% | +0.33 |
| 16/05/2026 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 57% | -0.31 |
| 23/05/2026 | 2nd | 8/13 | 97% | 83% | -0.13 |
| 26/06/2026 | 5th | 9/4 | 88% | 64% | -0.25 |
| 11/07/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 22% | -0.04 |
| 23/08/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |
| 06/09/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 60% | -0.22 |