3
Luciana
3yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 54
Meadowlands · Race 3 - Maiden Special Weight · 5f
#5
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
8%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▲1
Strength16%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Monmouth Park | ? | 4th | 7th | −3 |
| 2026-08-16 | Monmouth Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-19 | Monmouth Park | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-06-26 | Monmouth Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Monmouth Park | ? | 6th | 9th | −3 |
| 2026-05-16 | Monmouth Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 717% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength64%
Delivery trend +3.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/08/2025 | 7th | 11/8 | 93% | 0% | -0.93 |
| 19/09/2025 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 14% | -0.38 |
| 16/05/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 86% | +0.15 |
| 30/05/2026 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 0% | -0.74 |
| 26/06/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 82% | +0.56 |
| 19/07/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 67% | -0.23 |
| 16/08/2026 | 7th | 4/1 | 79% | 14% | -0.65 |
| 05/09/2026 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |